{"id":1297,"date":"2018-11-15T06:36:36","date_gmt":"2018-11-15T06:36:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/15\/hypothesis-development-canvas-version-0-4\/"},"modified":"2018-11-15T06:36:36","modified_gmt":"2018-11-15T06:36:36","slug":"hypothesis-development-canvas-version-0-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/15\/hypothesis-development-canvas-version-0-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Hypothesis Development Canvas Version 0.4"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Author: Bill Schmarzo<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>In the blog \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/data-science-paint-numbers-hypothesis-development-canvas-schmarzo\/\">Data Science \u2018Paint by the Numbers\u2019 with the Hypothesis Development Canvas<\/a>,\u201d I introduced the Hypothesis Development Canvas as a tool for linking an organization\u2019s data science activities with the organization\u2019s strategic business initiatives (see Figure 1).<span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/storage.ning.com\/topology\/rest\/1.0\/file\/get\/133997949?profile=original\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/storage.ning.com\/topology\/rest\/1.0\/file\/get\/133997949?profile=original\" class=\"align-full\"><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure<\/strong> <strong><span>1<\/span><\/strong><strong>: Using Hypothesis Development Canvas to link Machine Learning initiatives to Business Model<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Since publishing that blog, I\u2019ve had a chance to test the canvas with my University of San Francisco students.<span>\u00a0<\/span> And I\u2019ll also be testing the Hypothesis Development Canvas this week during my TDWI session \u201c<span><a href=\"https:\/\/tdwi.org\/events\/conferences\/orlando\/sessions\/tuesday\/biz-all-big-data-mba-driving-digital-transformation-with-big-data-and-artificial-intelligence.aspx\">T6A Big Data MBA: Driving Digital Transformation with Big Data and Artificial Intelligence<\/a><\/span>\u201d in Orlando (a special surprise for my workshop attendees!!)<\/p>\n<p>The Hypothesis Development Canvas has proven to be a big hit with my students.<span>\u00a0<\/span>It is an effective and concise tool that integrates the different elements of the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/refined-thinking-like-data-scientist-series-bill-schmarzo\/\">Thinking Like A Data Scientist<\/a>\u201d process into a single document (see Figure 2).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/storage.ning.com\/topology\/rest\/1.0\/file\/get\/133998189?profile=original\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/storage.ning.com\/topology\/rest\/1.0\/file\/get\/133998189?profile=original\" class=\"align-full\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure<\/strong> <strong><span>2<\/span><\/strong><strong>: \u201cThinking Like A Data Scientist\u201d Process<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Hypothesis Development Canvas also ensures that data science work directly supports the organization\u2019s business and operational strategies; that the organization\u2019s precious data science and business leadership resources are focused on the organization\u2019s most important business initiatives.<\/p>\n<p>Disclaimer:<span>\u00a0<\/span> This is a \u201cBusiness\u201d hypothesis development and not a \u201cStatistical\u201d hypothesis testing which is the formal procedures used by statisticians to accept or reject statistical hypotheses (i.e., null hypothesis, null hypothesis).<\/p>\n<p>I am going to use this blog to provide more details and some instructions on the use of the Hypothesis Development Canvas.<span>\u00a0<\/span> I will provide an example Hypothesis Development Canvas for our University of San Francisco Big Data MBA in-class Chipotle assignment.<\/p>\n<h1><strong>Hypothesis Development Canvas v0.4<\/strong><\/h1>\n<p>Below is the most current version of the Hypothesis Development Canvas \u2013 version 0.4 (see Figure 3).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/storage.ning.com\/topology\/rest\/1.0\/file\/get\/133998191?profile=original\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/storage.ning.com\/topology\/rest\/1.0\/file\/get\/133998191?profile=original\" class=\"align-full\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure<\/strong> <strong><span>3<\/span><\/strong><strong>:<span>\u00a0<\/span> Hypothesis Development Canvas v0.4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We added some panels, combined other panels, and added numbers to support the flow of the canvas creation process (thanks John Morley).<span>\u00a0<\/span> Here are the Instructions for each of the numbered panels on the Hypothesis Development canvas in Figure 2:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>What is the hypothesis or use case that you are trying to improve, reduce or optimize (e.g., increase customer retention, reduce obsolete &#038; excessive inventory, optimize marketing spend, reduce unplanned operational downtime)?<\/li>\n<li>What are key performance indicators (KPI\u2019s) or metrics against which hypothesis progress and success will be measured?<\/li>\n<li>What is the business value of the hypothesis from the financial, operational and customer perspectives; that is, what are the benefits of the successful execution of the hypothesis on the finances of the business (e.g., increase sales, reduce costs, optimize spend), the operations of the business (e.g., improve operational effectiveness, reduce unnecessary inventory, reduce overtime, reduce logistics, provisioning and inventory costs), and\/or upon customers (Customer Satisfaction, Likelihood to Recommend, Net Promoter Scores)?<\/li>\n<li>Who are the business stakeholders, business functions or constituents who either impact or are impacted by the Hypothesis?<\/li>\n<li>What are entities \u2013 human or device\/machine \u2013 around which to build the analytics (e.g., customers, patients, students, turbines, chillers, compressors)?<\/li>\n<li>What are most important business and operational decisions that need to be made in support of hypothesis?<\/li>\n<li>What are the predictions that might be required to support the business or operational decisions (e.g., predict at-risk customers, successful campaigns, potentially failing parts, component wear-and-tear)?<\/li>\n<li>What data sources might be necessary to support the predictions; that is, \u201c<span>What predictions are you trying to make<em>,<\/em> and<em>what data might be useful in making that prediction<\/em><\/span>?\u201d<\/li>\n<li>What are the variables and metrics that might yield better predictors of performance? Use the \u201cBy Analysis\u201d technique to help brainstorm those variables and metrics \u2013 \u201c<em>I want to make performance predictions \u201cby\u201d store, store remodel date, most popular products, local demographics, customer segment, etc<\/em>.?<\/li>\n<li>What business and operational recommendations are required to support the decisions; that is; what should I do, where should I do it, who should do it, when should they do it, what will they need to do it, etc.?<\/li>\n<li>What are the potential technical, data and\/or organizational impediments to success (e.g., data availability, data quality, technical skills, architecture, management support)?<\/li>\n<li>What are costs or risks associated with the predictive model being wrong; that is, what are the financial, operational and customer costs associated with the model yielding False Positives (predicts a condition to exist when it does not) and False Negatives (does not predict a condition when it does exist)?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h1><strong>Chipotle Hypothesis Development Canvas<\/strong><\/h1>\n<p>Figure 4 shows a completed Hypothesis Development Canvas for the Chipotle \u201cIncrease sales store sales\u201d business initiative.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/storage.ning.com\/topology\/rest\/1.0\/file\/get\/133998283?profile=original\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/storage.ning.com\/topology\/rest\/1.0\/file\/get\/133998283?profile=original\" class=\"align-full\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure<\/strong> <strong><span>4<\/span><\/strong><strong>: Chipotle Exercise Hypothesis Development Canvas<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Again, see the blog \u201c<span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/refined-thinking-like-data-scientist-series-bill-schmarzo\">Refined Thinking like a Data Scientist Series<\/a><\/span>\u201d for the content for the Hypothesis Development Canvas example (and heck, give yourself the assignment to complete the Hypothesis Development Canvas for Chipotle).<\/p>\n<h1><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/h1>\n<p>We\u2019ll continue to test and make refinements to the Hypothesis Development Canvas.<span>\u00a0<\/span> I also encourage others to test, stretch, bend and abuse the canvas as a way to ensure that it reflects the best thinking of all parties.<span>\u00a0<\/span> Thanks for your help!<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.datasciencecentral.com\/xn\/detail\/6448529:BlogPost:777023\">Go to Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Author: Bill Schmarzo In the blog \u201cData Science \u2018Paint by the Numbers\u2019 with the Hypothesis Development Canvas,\u201d I introduced the Hypothesis Development Canvas as a [&hellip;] <span class=\"read-more-link\"><a class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/2018\/11\/15\/hypothesis-development-canvas-version-0-4\/\">Read More<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":467,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1297"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1297"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1297\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/464"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1297"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1297"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1297"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}