{"id":3272,"date":"2020-03-25T06:36:07","date_gmt":"2020-03-25T06:36:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/25\/simulating-covid-19-with-agent-based-modeling\/"},"modified":"2020-03-25T06:36:07","modified_gmt":"2020-03-25T06:36:07","slug":"simulating-covid-19-with-agent-based-modeling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/25\/simulating-covid-19-with-agent-based-modeling\/","title":{"rendered":"Simulating COVID-19 with Agent-Based Modeling"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Author: Andrew Steckley, PhD<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/storage.ning.com\/topology\/rest\/1.0\/file\/get\/4214635936?profile=original\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/storage.ning.com\/topology\/rest\/1.0\/file\/get\/4214635936?profile=RESIZE_710x\" class=\"align-center\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here are some (very) early outputs from an Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 that I&#8217;m currently developing.<\/p>\n<p>It allows configuring a number of parameters including:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>population sizes (of healthy and infected people) by age<\/li>\n<li>distribution of vulnerability by age<\/li>\n<li>level of social&nbsp;distancing in effect by age<\/li>\n<li>probabilistic variations of incubation periods and symptom durations&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(The current chart simply uses placeholder values for all of these factors.)<\/p>\n<p>A model like this is most useful, not for absolute predictions, but for running&nbsp;multiple scenarios to identify relative results under different situations and to compare the results of implementing of&nbsp;various potential mitigation policies.<\/p>\n<p>The model&#8217;s biggest deficiencies, which I&#8217;m working on, are:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>gathering the best estimates (that represent real-world ground truth) for all the input parameters.<\/li>\n<li>Enhancing it to include spatial modeling and density variation of the populations<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If you have feedback or suggestions, or would like to help in the development, contact me.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/storage.ning.com\/topology\/rest\/1.0\/file\/get\/4214635936?profile=original\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.datasciencecentral.com\/xn\/detail\/6448529:BlogPost:940364\">Go to Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Author: Andrew Steckley, PhD Here are some (very) early outputs from an Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 that I&#8217;m currently developing. It allows configuring a number [&hellip;] <span class=\"read-more-link\"><a class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/2020\/03\/25\/simulating-covid-19-with-agent-based-modeling\/\">Read More<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":461,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3272"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3272"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3272\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/470"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.aiproblog.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}