We live in a world where everyone needs to learn how to make informed decisions with incomplete and sometimes conflicting data. And that\u2019s a big challenge because humans are inherently bad at making decisions.\u00a0 And if you want proof, just visit Las Vegas.\u00a0 Yes, Las Vegas has figured out how to monetize our stupid human decision-making<\/strong> (SHDM) flaws (Figure 1).\u00a0 Figure<\/strong> 1<\/strong>:<\/strong> Data-driven by Dilbert (Scott Adams)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n Figure<\/strong> 2<\/strong>:<\/strong> Human Decision-making Flaws<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Unfortunately, every day we are asked to make important, sometimes life-or-death decisions with imperfect and\/or conflicting data.\u00a0 There is a whole class of decisions, preventive decisions,<\/strong> which are proactive actions taken to minimize the probability of serious injury or death.\u00a0 Examples of preventive decisions include:<\/p>\n Preventive decisions can be particularly tricky, especially in highly emotional (politicalized) situations where the costs associated with being wrong are distorted.\u00a0 We are seeing this situation play out in the real world with the COVID vaccination resistance (Figure 3).<\/p>\n Figure<\/strong> 3<\/strong>: COVID-19 Decision-making Extremes<\/strong><\/p>\n \u201cNobody\u2019s right if everybody\u2019s wrong<\/em>\u201d \u2013 \u201cFor What It’s Worth<\/a>\u201d by Buffalo Springfield<\/p>\n For my class at Menlo College, I am creating an exercise where the students will explore how to make informed decisions in situations of imperfect or even conflicting data (using the decision about wearing seatbelts).\u00a0 The exercise starts by reviewing a process for making informed decisions in imperfect situations.\u00a0 I call this \u201cDecision Literacy.\u201d<\/p>\n Whether we are overtly aware of it or not, everyone creates a \u201cmodel\u201d to guide their decision and gathers data as appropriate for the scale or importance of that decision.<\/p>\n To aid in making informed decisions in imperfect situations of incomplete, conflicting, and\/or distorted data, we can embrace the Decision-making Framework of Figure 4.<\/p>\n Figure<\/strong> 4<\/strong>: Informed Decision-making Framework<\/strong><\/p>\n Some steps in the Informed Decision-making Framework:<\/p>\n How one frames the decision becomes important in the data gathering part of making an informed decision.\u00a0 Are you trying to gather data to determine the right decisions or are you gathering data to support the decision that you have already made?\u00a0<\/p>\n To reiterate this critical point in trying to make informed decisions:<\/p>\n A true data scientist frames the hypothesis so that we can learn what decision is best versus framing the hypothesis to support the decision that we have already made.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n There is a big difference!<\/p>\n To evaluate our decision options (to wear or not wear a seatbelt, to get or not get vaccinated) requires the following steps:<\/p>\n The Decision Matrix<\/strong> can guide us in the data gathering and analysis process (Figure 5).<\/p>\n Figure<\/strong> 5<\/strong>: Decision Matrix<\/strong><\/p>\n Objectivity is everything.\u00a0 If you come into this process with your mind already made up, then you will only find data that support your position and fabricate reasons to ignore the data that run counter to what you already believe.\u00a0 If you have a vested interest in a certain decision outcome, then your objectivity is threatened, and the results of your analysis are likely to be biased.<\/p>\n The COVID pandemic has frustrated many of us who believe in data and facts to make informed decisions.\u00a0 Being able to ingest new facts, toss out outdated facts, and ignore the droning of so-called \u201cexpert\u2019s\u201d self-serving and skewed opinions is the key to survival, not only as professionals, but as a species.<\/p>\n Finally, the decision process needs data that users can trust in order to make informed decisions. And having data that one trusts is part of our problem today. Even if the data comes from trustworthy sources, it’s very easy to take to social media and scream #FakeNews<\/strong> and create unjustified fear in the data. That’s why Critical Thinking<\/a> is critical to making informed decisions.<\/p>\n Figure<\/strong> 6<\/strong>:<\/strong> The Key Aspects of Critical Thinking<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Critical thinking is more important than ever in a world where the media is constantly screaming their point of view (many times just to drive engagement, views, and profits).<\/p>\n The key to your bottom-line (and not someone else\u2019s), is to think for yourself.\u00a0 Period.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p>\n [1]<\/span><\/a> A hypothesis<\/strong> is an assumption or an idea that is proposed for the sake of argument so that it can be tested to see if it might be true.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Go to Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<\/a><\/p>\n
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Decision Literacy<\/strong><\/h1>\n
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Framing the Decision to be Made<\/strong><\/h1>\n
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The Importance of Properly Framing the Decision to be Made<\/strong><\/h1>\n
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Befriending the Decision Matrix<\/strong><\/h1>\n
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Informed Decisions Summary<\/strong><\/h1>\n
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